The Diamondbacks are off to a poor start in 2024, but it has only been 11 games and fans ought to relax.

-Jesse Friedman

3 reasons not to panic about Diamondbacks' rough start

Photo: Isaiah J. Downing/USA Today Sports

The Diamondbacks are 4-7, and they have lost five in a row. They have played one of baseball's lesser teams, the Colorado Rockies, in nearly half of their games. Suffice it to say this is not the start they wanted coming off a World Series run.

It is important to keep in mind, however, how small a sample 11 games is. Mathematically, that is less than seven percent of the full 162-game schedule.

Yes, the Diamondbacks have already lost several games in brutal fashion — including coughing up leads of three runs or more in three of their past five games — but dropping five straight in April is hardly a death knell for an entire season.

Last year, three major-league teams had below-.500 records after 11 games but still made the playoffs. Among them are the Philadelphia Phillies, who started the year 4-7 but finished with 90 wins.

This is not to say that this stretch hasn't exposed legitimate weaknesses, or that the Diamondbacks' slow start ought be written off as a fluke. But, for a variety of reasons, it is too early to make any definitive judgements.

1. Diamondbacks doing many things well

Through 11 games, the Diamondbacks have averaged six runs per game. That puts them on pace for 972 runs this year, which would have led all of baseball last year.

That is not to say they will actually score 972 runs — six runs per game is all but certainly unsustainable — but, no matter how you slice it, the Diamondbacks offense has been above average to start the year. The fact that they have scored most of their runs in the first few innings is an oddity, not necessarily a flaw.

The Diamondbacks' plus-14 run differential to date is the fourth-best mark in the National League. Based on Pythagorean win percentage, that run differential is indicative of a 7-4 team.

In terms of specific players, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly have looked every bit like the potent 1-2 punch that they were a year ago. They have a combined 2.12 ERA entering Kelly's start on Tuesday night against the Rockies. Youngster Brandon Pfaadt, meanwhile, has arguably pitched much better than his 5.06 ERA would suggest.

Key hitters Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Ketel Marte have started well, with OPS marks of .897 and .883, respectively. Newcomers Eugenio Suárez and Joc Pederson have looked good at the plate, too.

2. Reinforcements on the way

Over the past three weeks, the Diamondbacks have lost several frontline players to injury, including starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez (lat), closer Paul Sewald (oblique), outfielder Alek Thomas (hamstring) and shortstop Geraldo Perdomo (knee).

The Diamondbacks have only been outscored by a total of eight runs in their five-game losing streak, and it is fair to wonder if they might have pulled a few of them out had they been closer to full strength.

Of course, injuries are part of the game. Teams rarely are at full strength at any time of the year. Nonetheless, it bears mentioning that all four of the aforementioned injured players are expected back in the next couple of months, and some could be back much sooner.

Recent free-agent signee Jordan Montgomery, meanwhile, made a rehab start with the Reno Aces on Sunday and is expected to debut for his new team on April 19.

Perhaps the biggest reason to be hopeful about the Diamondbacks is that their roster could look a lot different in a few weeks than it does now.

3. Two players bound to turn it around

Last year, outfielder Corbin Carroll and catcher Gabriel Moreno were the Diamondbacks' two best young players. The former blossomed into a star out of the gate and finished fifth in NL MVP voting. The latter got off to a slower start but looked like a potential star toward the end of the year.

So far, the Diamondbacks have gotten little production from either. Carroll is slashing .225/.340/.250 in 47 plate appearances, and Moreno is hitting .161/.297/.258 in 37 plate appearances.

Granted, Carroll and Moreno are both in their second full years in the majors. It is hardly uncommon for young players to encounter difficulties as the league continues to adjust to them. Nonetheless, both seem like good bets to break out of their slumps soon.