If you're watching a Phoenix Suns game and wondering whether they're going to win, these are the 5 stats that will probably answer your question.

-Gerald Bourguet

The 5 main barometers to keep an eye on during Suns games

Not to beat a dead horse here, but the Phoenix Suns are an inconsistent basketball team. We've written about it, written about it as a group, talked about it on the PHNX Suns Podcast, talked about it again on Take That For Data, and oh, written about it again.

It's hard to tell whether Jekyll or Hyde will show up on a nightly basis. Just over the last week, we've seen them fluctuate between embarrassing losses to the San Antonio Spurs without Victor Wembanyama and the Oklahoma City Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, to impressive bounce-back wins over the Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans.

Matchups obviously play a critical part in those drastically different results, but if you find yourself watching Phoenix and wondering whether they're going to win, these five statistical barometers should serve as a useful indicator.

1. Winning the 3-point battle

Heading into Wednesday's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Suns are 28-7 when they beat or at least tie their opponent in 3-point makes. When they lose the 3-point battle outright, they're 16-24.

So essentially, the Suns are a 66-win team when they at least match their opponent in 3-point makes, and they're a 33-win team when they fail to do so.

In the modern, 3-point-heavy NBA, it feels like common sense that winning the 3-point battle gives you a better chance to win games. Most teams would have a better record when they make more 3s than their opponent, right? But most teams aren't top-five in the league in 3-point percentage like Phoenix. And most of those teams in the top-five in 3-point percentage aren't also 24th in attempts.

As a team shooting 38.1 percent from deep, they have the shooters! And when the ball is moving, even this midrange-centric group can generate good looks from deep! They just don't always do so, and while switch-heavy teams tend to be Phoenix's kryptonite when it comes to generating 3s, the Suns' superior shot-making is going to give them a chance to win any game as long as the 3-point makes are close.

2. Managing the deficit in 3-point attempts

The funny thing is, the Suns don't have to attempt 40 or 50 3s to win games. Sure, they're 7-2 this season when attempting at least 40 triples, but having nine such games out of 75 should be considered a rarity.

What carries the Suns is their absurd efficiency. Despite ranking second in the league in frequency of shots that are "tightly" guarded and dead-last in frequency of shots that are "open," the Suns are still fourth in field-goal percentage and fifth in 3-point percentage. Simply put, they're the most elite shot-making team in the NBA. They just have to make sure they're managing the (expected) deficit in 3-point attempts.

Opponents have attempted more 3s than the Suns in 53 of their 75 games so far this season, so they're usually going to face a deficit in that category. But as long as Phoenix can keep things relatively even in the makes column (as covered above), and get up enough 3s themselves, they'll be in good shape.

Here's the barometer: When the Suns attempt 33 3s or more, they're 24-11. When they fail to reach 33 attempts from downtown, they're 20-20.

So basically, they go from being a 56-win team to a 41-win team based on whether they hit that 33-attempt threshold. It's really not asking for too much, since this team currently averages 32.4 long-range attempts per game.

3. Sharing the ball

With a Big 3 of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, it's only natural that the Suns run a lot of iso-ball. They have three players capable of attacking mismatches one-on-one, which will help them in a playoff setting where hunting pigeons becomes a necessity.

But the Suns also have to avoid devolving into too many isos, which grind the player and ball movement to a halt and make them easier to defend. Phoenix is sixth in isolation frequency but only 13th in points per possession on those plays. And much like their 3-point attempts, the Suns' assist totals serve as a pretty good barometer for how well the ball is moving.

When Phoenix records 30 assists or more, they're 20-3. When they fail to reach the 30-assist mark, they're 24-28. That's the difference between a 71-win team and a 38-win team.

“Trusting the pass," coach Frank Vogel said. "We keep talking to our guys, we gotta be a team-first team to reach our potential, and bringing two to the ball and being 3-point line aggressive. We want to get up a high volume of 3s."

Getting to 30 assists is a great sign for any team, but it's especially pertinent for a Suns offense that's unstoppable when they're flowing from one action to the next instead of standing around watching one guy go to work. It keeps potential difference-makers like Grayson Allen, Eric Gordon and Royce O'Neale involved, and it typically speaks to how well this sharpshooting team is generating quality 3-point looks instead of settling for tougher, contested shots. And that even applies to the Big 3.

"They can get their midrange with airspace, that's a layup for those three guys," Vogel explained. "So we encourage high-efficient shots, but we just want to stay away from early contested shots, contested 2s, to keep the ball movement. But all three of those guys have communicated throughout the year that their preference is to play with multiple people touching it and with great ball movement, and then use their skills as the ball's moving and attacking closeouts."

4. Keep the turnovers down

Again, most teams fare well when they minimize their turnovers, but this is uniquely important to the Suns, who are ranked 25th in both turnovers per game and opponent points off turnovers. They're coughing it up 14.9 times per game and giving up 18.4 free points a night as a result.

That's awful! Especially for a top-10 offense that could be blowing teams out of the water by cutting down on so many of the self-inflicted mistakes.

“We just gotta stay away from the unforced ones," Vogel said. "Our guys are really looking to extra pass the basketball, which is how we want to play, which is who we want to be. We just gotta do it with more care.”

We've already extensively covered the nature of the Suns' baffling turnover problem, but if they can just eliminate one or two braindead turnovers per game, they'll be in good shape: Phoenix is 21-12 when they commit 13 turnovers or less (52-win pace), but fall to 23-19 when they commit 14 turnovers or more (45-win pace).

5. How about some defense?

Pace and 3-point shooting have drastically altered expectations for NBA defenses. Holding teams under 100 points used to be the most basic barometer for a capable defense. Then it became holding an opponent under 110 points. Now...26 out of the league's 30 teams average at least 110 points per game.

Defensive rating is a better metric to evaluate defense than points per game, but it's hard to ignore these numbers: When the Suns hold their opponent to 114 points or less, they're 31-11, which is a 61-win pace. When their opponent gets to 115 points or more, they're 13-20, which is a 32-win pace.

On the one hand, it's hard to imagine the Suns consistently holding playoff opponents under 114 points when 16 NBA teams average at least that amount on a nightly basis. On the other hand, Phoenix has done it in 42 of their 75 games this season, so it's not some impossible feat either.

The Suns have been an elite half-court defense since the beginning of March, and come playoff time, games will grind down to possession-by-possession battles. Their point-of-attack defense, pick-and-roll defense and interior defense will all be tested in a playoff setting, and some matchups (Denver, Minnesota) may be better-suited for Phoenix because of their slower bigs compared to quicker, more perimeter-oriented teams (OKC, LAC).

But no matter the matchup, the Suns have to hold up defensively, or at least be respectable enough to allow their offense to do the heavy lifting. And with seven games left in the season, they have to keep their opponents under that 114-point mark to even make the postseason at all.