The Phoenix Suns still have a ways to go to solve their fourth-quarter struggles, but Bradley Beal getting more comfortable in those minutes is a great sign.
-Gerald Bourguet
It's no secret the Phoenix Suns have struggled in fourth quarters. It's been a problem since the opening weeks of the season, and for a variety of reasons, it hasn't gotten better with time. The Suns' roller coaster seven-game road trip was another example of those late-game woes, resulting in a 4-3 record that really could've been 6-1 if not for multiple fourth-quarter collapses.
Ask coach Frank Vogel or any Suns player what the root of those fourth-quarter struggles is, and you might get a totally different answer.
Devin Booker admitted it was a little bit of a mental hurdle at this point, citing the team's slower pace and lackluster defense. Grayson Allen agreed about the mental component, mentioning the Suns' tendency to play too conservatively with leads while trying to milk the clock. And Vogel dismissed the idea that it was a mental hurdle, noting instead that each game has come with different scenarios.
“It's something we have supreme confidence that we're gonna be great down the stretch in those situations, and there's been lessons each time," Vogel said. "A lot of them are different scenarios -- up 15 and holding a lead against a team that's gonna come pressure. Sometimes it's about trying to get back into a game. Sometimes we have role players, sometimes we don't have role players."
Either way, everyone seems to agree the Suns' approach tends to get too passive late in games, especially when playing with a lead. In Tuesday's 114-106 win over the shorthanded Milwaukee Bucks, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant demonstrated the value of this high-powered offense staying in attack mode.
“I know everybody makes a crazy deal out of the fourth, man, but I think it's our approach to it, just staying aggressive," Beal said. "I think sometimes we see we got a lead and we wanna, I guess, coast or just kinda go through the motions. But I think when we stay aggressive like we did tonight, it puts us in really better situations of flow offensively.”
The Suns' 35-33 margin of victory in the final frame on Tuesday was just the second time in their last eight games that they won a fourth quarter -- with the other being a one-point margin against the Dallas Mavericks. Phoenix statistically checks out as the worst fourth-quarter team since NBA tracking data began in 1996-97, which is confounding for a group that has Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal.
But as the Big 3 and the rest of the rotation guys have been able to get reps together over the last few weeks, they're slowly starting to figure things out. They've now won 16 of their last 22 games, their starting lineup is statistically dominant, and they've entered the fourth quarter with a lead in seven of their last eight games.
The last domino to fall is becoming just as potent over the game's final 12 minutes. The Suns can and should be a deadly fourth-quarter team, considering they can stagger their rotations so that one or two of the Big 3 is always on the court.
The problem is the Suns have fallen apart whenever Booker has taken his rest. Book typically plays the entire first and third quarters to start off halves strong and develop a rhythm, which he's been doing for almost his entire career. Vogel has staggered his lineups well, opening second and fourth quarters with both Durant and Beal on the floor while Booker gets his break. That should be enough, but for a multitude of reasons, those non-Booker lineups have struggled.
Coming into Tuesday's game against Milwaukee, the Suns were a -54 in 60 fourth-quarter minutes where Durant and Beal were on the floor without Booker. It's an inexplicable number, which speaks to Booker's value as a point guard, since he's the straw that stirs the drink on offense. But outside of trading for a backup point guard to create easier looks for Durant and Beal in those minutes, the solution needs to be internal.
Consider the Bucks win as a step in the right direction. Through three quarters, Phoenix held a 6-point lead, but both Beal and Durant were missing left and right. All signs pointed to the Suns being doomed by another problematic stint to start fourth quarter while Booker rested.
Instead, that non-Booker lineup was a +7, and both Beal and Durant ignited for 26 of the Suns' 35 points in the final frame:
We've seen Durant step up and carry the offense at multiple points throughout the season, and he doubled down on his offensive production by tackling the Giannis Antetokounmpo assignment on the defensive end as well.
But going from being the No. 1 option on the Washington Wizards to the third option as part of this Big 3 has required a larger adjustment from Beal than anyone else, and Tuesday's fourth-quarter explosion was a promising sign of his growing comfort with picking and choosing his spots.
"Each game that those three guys play together builds that cohesion," Vogel said. "They find the balance. And what we love about our group is we're gonna be a team that beats teams with one of those guys going off for 40 or 50 points, and we're gonna be a team that beats those guys with great balance like we did tonight. And I love that those guys are finding their way with that."
It hasn't been a seamless process. Aside from the back problems that sidelined him for a significant chunk of the season, Beal also broke his nose on the Suns' recent road trip. As he struggled to play through plugged nostrils, different masks and another shot to the nose in Atlanta, his production waned.
Over a five-game stretch just before Beal's return to Washington D.C., he averaged 13.2 points and 6.2 assists per game, shooting 35.2 percent from the field and an abysmal 13.8 percent from deep. He missed 25 of his 29 3-pointers, and his team-worst -5.0 point differential spoke to how bad that stretch was.
It's not surprising that, when asked about playing in the mask, Beal interjected, "It sucks." He mentioned how it limits his peripheral vision, to the point that he can't see the ball when he's dribbling. Beal still needs to get his nose reset, and he's got two inconvenient options in regards to the timing.
"The longer we wait, it gets tougher to do that procedure," Beal explained. "So luckily we got All-Star break coming up, I'll have to make a decision whether I'm doing a little bit of a little nose job or not, or wait 'til the offseason.”
In any case, it feels like Beal is not only getting more comfortable in his mask, but choosing his spots to be aggressive in general. After dropping a season-high 43 points in his first game against the Wizards, Beal struggled early against Milwaukee, missing layups and wide-open 3s. But he salvaged his night with a 12-point fourth-quarter that featured a few tough drives into the paint and a vicious step-back 3 to close it out:
“He stayed with it, that's what great players do when those shots don't fall," Durant said. "A lot of great looks too, open 3s that he looked good leaving his hands. But we don't worry about Brad, we know he'll get it going. As long as he's aggressive to shoot the ball, though. So 22 shots, we can live with those. It's the law of averages for him. You get more shots up, the more comfortable you get.”
If Beal can maintain that level of aggression and really dial it up whenever Booker rests, the Suns will have moved one gigantic step closer to solving their fourth-quarter woes.
“I think empowering Bradley Beal of late, the last two, three, four, five games, has really helped with that," Vogel said prophetically before the game. "I think early on, there was a little bit of a 'What's the identity of that group?' when they're out there together and how we want to play.”
Vogel doesn't believe it's about confidence for Beal; it's just been a matter of getting his legs back under him, getting past the minutes restriction that limited him for a few weeks, and learning how to play with two other superstars -- all at the same time.
From Beal's perspective, his increased comfort in those situations is not only something that Vogel encouraged, but a natural progression of building continuity with this Big 3.
“A little bit of both," Beal summarized. "Obviously getting my legs and feet and feel of the game back, but him encouraging me and basically saying it in front of the whole team, like, 'No, Brad, K, let's go, get us going, run actions.' That's definitely encouraging, for sure. It pushes me to continue to be aggressive and help us however he sees fit. But when we had that lineup initially out there to start the fourth, we have to be aggressive, for sure.”
Everyone knows what Kevin Durant can do in fourth quarters. But if Bradley Beal begins to routinely assert himself to buoy these problematic non-Booker lineups, the Suns could be on the cusp of addressing their greatest Achilles heel.
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